The rise and fall of musical genres

I was watching videos from Black Sabbath's final concert - Back To The Beginning. It was an epic event with the biggest bands in metal and rock music - Metallica, Alice in Chains, Pantera and so on. Black Sabbath were the first to pioneer the heavy metal sound that influenced most of the bands that played on that stage. They were the first who turned it up a notch, made their guitars sound louder and heavier through riffs like Iron Man or Paranoid.

Suddenly I realized though... most musicians that went on that stage were in their 50s and 60s. James Hatfield - 61 yo, Phil Anselmo 57 yo, Joe Duplantier from Gojira is among the younger ones at 48 yo. Ozzy himself is 76 yo. Where are all the young bands? I think this is an indication that metal as a genre is on the decline and is past its peak in the mainstream. In around 10-15 years when all of these bands are retired, I don't think there's anybody to carry the torch in the same way. Most of the people on that gig rose to fame in their 20s. Today's music landscape is very different and I don't see many 20 year olds playing metal music. Sure, I know you'll point to Sleep Token or Bring me the Horizon but they seem like the exception and I believe their success is attributed to their masterful blending of multiple genres and incorporating pop music elements into their music. By doing that, I think they are not really carrying on the metal genre as it has been since the 80s/90s but rather inventing a new one. Blending elements of pop, jazz and trap music is true musical innovation and I think one of the reasons why their music became so popular. Which leads me to my main point...

A genre is born

Musical innovation happens fairly rarely. A lot of music that comes out sounds like some other artist with a few different elements. This is really what defines a genre - a similar palette of sounds with minor changes. This is especially the case with pop music which has somewhat converged to a set of elements that just 'click' with audiences and shoot people to stardom. And yet pop artists who innovate by bringing in elements from somewhere else are the ones that become popular now. Dua Lipa introduced a lot of funky bass lines to her music. Billie Eilish added her signature whisper-like vocals and thick bass lines. The problem is when pop artists find a 'formula' that's been successful they try to reproduce it. How many Katy Perry songs do you know? I can think of just two or maybe three that were wildly popular and yet artists like her have tons of songs that people outside their core fanbase barely know.

So... sometimes an artist comes around that becomes wildly successful (like Sleep Token) and this leads to attention from a wide audience to such an extent that other artists try to emulate this. Soon after other musicians capitalize on that (perhaps due to their own lack of creativity) and try to mostly copy the 'vibe' of a band or artist that shot up in popularity by putting their own spin. This brings a wave of copycats because it works. People liked the sound of band A so when band B shows up and does pretty much the same but with marginal differences, people are satisfied. And thus a genre is born! But eventually...

Genres die

Sometimes a particular blend of instruments and elements strikes a chord that resonates so well with people that they can't get enough of it. It's why it's natural for copycats to appear. They try to push the boundaries of the genre and bring their own little innovation to the genre - whether that's their attitude, soundscape, visuals, a new instrument, the same instrument but louder or any other combination of elements. It's like pizza. Everyone loves it, some people make marginal changes like adding pineapple or making the base thick but the type of pizza that has the widest appeal is always the original - tomato base, cheese on top and maybe some meat.

Going back to the original discussion on metal - Black Sabbath were the true innovators when they added higher levels of distortion to their songs and power chords. In the decades that followed, bands kept pushing changes in the heavy metal genre, creating niche sub-genres that could never gain wider appeal. Often this happens by artists trying to add 'more of X' to the mix of ingredients. The whole idea of the 'heavy' sound kept being pushed through lower guitar tuning, adding more strings to the point where some bands use a 9-string guitar that's essentially the same frequency as a bass guitar. In terms of vocals, they became harsher and harsher with more screaming, more growling, more noise. Pushing boundaries for the sake of it has just lead to throwing away core musical fundamentals like dynamics or melody to the point where so much of modern metal music is just a mashup of sound - growling and the same detuned guitar riffs where you can't make out what anyone is singing or there's no groove in the riffs. I'm sure a lot of people love the vibe that comes with these incremental changes but this just keeps them niche. It can never get the wide appeal that a band like Metallica has where they took existing elements and made them their own.

At the point when copycat musicians start showing up, true creativity starts declining. Genres are only defined by a specific set of elements that are blended together and the balance needs to be just right to have popular appeal. Eventually in the wider landscape of music, only the most catchy elements are left and the rest are forgotten.

Cycle of genres

I think this cycle of innovation > saturation > decline is just normal. A musician or band finds a new recipe, others try to follow in their steps but people get bored of that until some new interesting combination of elements shows up. An example of such an interesting blend is Polyphia. I'm not a huge fan because I think they favor technical guitar skill and fast playing more than musicality but it's obvious they've become very successful (at least among guitar nerds). However, I don't think they'll ever reach the level of success of bands like Metallica or Queen precisely because it feels like the heavy metal has peaked and they rely too much on incremental changes rather than a radically new recipe. I'm a huge fan of Trivium with their blend of clean and harsh vocals but I don't see them growing to the level of success that Black Sabbath or Iron Maiden have had. Recently, the band President has been making waves but I can't help but hear (and see) the Sleep Token influence - heavy 8-string guitars, both clean and harsh vocals, pop music elements with trap high-hats...

Truly innovative music is the one that stands the test of time because an artist managed to find the perfect blend of ingredients. Just like classic Italian pizza.